China’s CPI fell to -0.5% yoy in Nov, deepening deflation

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Released over the weekend, China’s economic data revealed a concerning trend as CPI plunged further into negative territory in November, marking the country’s deepest deflationary period in three years. CPI fell to -0.5% yoy, a notable decline from -0.2% yoy in the previous month and falling short of the expected -0.2% yoy. This deflationary reading is the most significant since November 2020, indicating mounting economic pressures. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, remained stable at 0.6% yoy, mirroring October’s figures.

National Bureau of Statistics chief statistician, Dong Lijuan, highlighted that the overall decline was driven primarily by decrease in energy and food prices. In particular, food prices dropped by -4.2% yoy, significantly impacted by a sharp -31.8% yoy decrease in pork prices. Meanwhile, non-food prices saw a modest increase of 0.4% yoy, with services prices climbing by 1.0% yoy.

On a month-on-month basis, CPI also experienced a downturn, falling by -0.5% mom in November from the previous month. This decline was characterized by a -0.9% drop in food prices and a -0.4% decrease in non-food prices.

From January to November, the average CPI increase was a mere 0.3% yoy, starkly undershooting China’s set annual inflation target of around 3%.

Furthermore, PPI also recorded a downturn, declining by -3.0% yoy, which is worse than the prior month’s -2.6% yoy and below the anticipated -2.8% yoy. This marks the 14th consecutive month of negative PPI readings, the worst since August.

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