Signs of life from oil but it’s a long road back from seven weeks of selling


weekly oil WTI

Sentiment in oil might finally be so washed out that it’s safe to wade in.

The US announced another 3 million barrels of purchases to refill the SPR today and that’s a modest positive catalyst as the White House is able to refill it at prices below what they paid. I’d argue that’s just more inventory down the line to keep oil below $100 but the oil bulls will take what they can get.

In the latest rout in oil, I wonder how many pair trades were involved with oil and bonds. Crude makes a great inflation hedge and with oil prices declining and bonds rallying, you wonder how many of those trades are being unwound.

Technically, there isn’t much to love here but there is some support in the $66-68 range, which equates to a positive risk-reward if you think OPEC+ can tighten the market in Q1 and US producers finally slow down. I don’t hate that trade but I would rather be late than early.

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