Citi says oil could briefly touch $100/bbl, but even $90 is not sustainable


A note from Citigroup commodity analysts via CNBC (gated).

Analysts at the bank say Oil prices may head toward $100 “for a short while”, citing output cuts and geopolitical tensions. But that level is not sustainable and the price is likely to drop into the end of the year:

  • “The Saudi appetite to withhold oil from market, supported by Russia maintaining a certain level of export constraint, points to higher prices in the short term, all else equal, but $90 prices look unsustainable given faster supply growth than demand growth ex-Saudi/Russia,”
  • “Higher prices in the near term could make for more downside for prices next year,”
  • production is rising among non-OPEC+ members like the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. Even Venezuelan and Iranian exports have grown.


  • see oil averaging $84 in Q4 2023
  • see it in the low-$70 range in 2024

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