US:
- The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting. - Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to
show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures
coming in at 0.16%. - The US PMIs missed
expectations across the board last week. - Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was
mostly in line with what he said previously but he stressed on the need to be
careful going forward and that continued strength in the labour market may
require further rate hikes. - The first half of the week saw US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence reports
missing expectations by a big margin, followed by a miss in the US ADP data and
a beat in the US Jobless Claims. - The market doesn’t expect another hike from the Fed
anymore, but a lot will depend on the data going forward.
Japan:
- The BoJ kept everything unchanged as expected at the last meeting but
implicitly tweaked the YCC policy keeping the target band unchanged but giving
more flexibility with a hard cap at 1.00%. - The Japanese CPI data surprised to the upside recently
with the core-core reading reaching again the previous high. - The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading
indicator for national cpi, missed expectations, but the core-core reading
matched the prior figure remaining well above the BoJ’s inflation target. - The Unemployment Rate surprisingly jumped to 2.7%
although it remains near the lows. - BoJ’s Governor Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium
reaffirmed that inflation is still below target and that’s why they’re sticking
with their monetary easing. This was also echoed by other BoJ members, but they
are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
USDJPY Daily
On the daily chart, we can see
that after breaking out of the 145.00 resistance,
the USDJPY pair started to range as the US economic data started to surprise to
the downside. The price is now testing the red 21 moving
average near the support level, and we should see the buyers stepping in
here to target another higher high. A break below the support would invalidate
the bullish setup and open the door for a fall into the 142.00 handle.
USDJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we recently got
a fakeout above the 146.56 resistance as the price rallied after the breakout
and then sold off following the big misses in the US Job Openings and Consumer
Confidence reports. We can also notice that we’ve been diverging
with the MACD
for a long time, and this is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. So, the bias is more skewed to the downside,
and we will need the price to break on either side of the range between the 146.56
resistance and the 145.00 support to give us a more clear direction.
USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is forming a falling
wedge pattern near the support level and it’s also diverging with the MACD.
This is a bullish signal, and the first target should be the resistance at
146.56. So, we are stuck in this range until a fundamental catalyst causes a
clear breakout and leads to a sustained and strong move.
Upcoming Events
Today the market will
be focused on the main release of the week: the US NFP report. We will also
have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI an hour and a half later, but the labour
market data is the priority right now. A bad reading is likely to weaken the US
Dollar as the fall in Treasury yields as a consequence should give the JPY a
boost. On the other hand, a good reading is likely to be linked with the
soft-landing scenario and keep Treasury yields high ultimately supporting the
greenback. Overall, it’s a mixed picture at the moment as the Fed is expected
to pause at the September meeting and we might get much worse economic data
before the next meeting in November, so we might see more choppy price action
going forward unless the data shows big surprises.
See also the video below