On the week itself, the pair is down roughly a little over 1% with the momentum from yesterday’s drop carrying over to today. The souring in the risk mood yesterday was a main drag for the aussie as well but the extension of the fall today looks to be more technical related I would say:
AUD/USD daily chart
The pair saw a decent bounce off the 200-day moving average (blue line) on Monday but failed to really build on that. And the break of the key level via yesterday’s close is a signal for further downside. Adding to that is the break of the 100-day moving average (red line) today, which puts sellers firmly in control.
The next key downside support will come from the end-June and July lows near the 0.6600 region, before potentially talking about 0.6500 again.
So, what else has impacted the aussie so much besides risk sentiment in markets?
Well, the fact that traders are growing more uncertain about the RBA decision next week is a key factor as well. Just exactly a month ago, a 25 bps rate hike was all but certain. Fast forward to today, and the odds priced in for such a move are only at roughly 23%.
A key consideration for the change in pricing also came after the softer Australian CPI report earlier this week but also as the RBA left the cash rate unchanged in its July decision here. So, is the “skip” ultimately turning into a “pause” for the RBA? If so, there is scope for this week’s retreat to run further it would seem.