The AUDUSD has exhibited a series of ups and downs since last Friday, with the “ups” encountering resistance between 0.67239 and 0.67296 for the majority of the week. Buyers attempted to push the price up on Wednesday and Thursday, driven by volatility from the Fed rate decision. These upward movements managed to surpass the 50% midpoint of the decline from the February 20 high at 0.67417 but fell short of the crucial falling 200-day moving average at 0.67579.
Yesterday, the price began to decline, breaking below two key swing areas: between 0.67239 and 0.67296 (red numbered circles), and between 0.6691 and 0.67036. The price low stalled near another swing area between 0.6665 and 0.66732 (green number circles).
In today’s trading, the initial move to the upside into the European morning session tested the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above), encountering selling pressure. This price point also fell within the swing area between 0.6691 and 0.67036, indicating that sellers remained in control.
Sellers have pushed the price down further to a new swing area between 0.6628 and 0.66399, breaking below the week’s low from Tuesday at 0.6649. Since then, the price has been fluctuating, reaching a high of 0.66494, near Tuesday’s low. The levels around 0.6665 and 0.66732 (green numbered circles in the chart above) are now crucial for determining short-term market bias. To maintain control and target the lower extremes observed between March 7 and March 15, sellers must keep the price below these levels. On the other hand, dip buyers will aim to reclaim the broken levels in order to shift the momentum in their favor.
As the market seeks a clear direction, traders will closely watch the price action to determine whether sellers can maintain the momentum below the critical 0.6649 and 0.6673 levels.