BTC/USD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price got rejected from a key resistance level set in June 2021. Bitcoin
had a parabolic rally since the peak of the banking “crisis” and we may now see
a pullback with the most likely support at the 25231 level where we can
also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement
level.

The Fed yesterday hiked
interest rates
by 25 bps as expected and kept everything
unchanged going against the market pricing of rate cuts by the end of this
year. It was a dovish hike though as the Fed thinks that the recent events will
tighten financial conditions anyway.

If that won’t be the case though,
the Fed is ready to raise rates to bring inflation down to their 2% target. The
Fed may be seeing risks that the market has not yet grasped fully, and this may
lead to risk off if bad news starts to come.

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price was diverging with the MACD trading into the resistance at
28911. This is a sign of a weakening momentum and generally we get pullbacks
and sometimes even reversals.

The moving
averages
have crossed to the downside signalling a possible change in the short
term trend. This should be a good place for the sellers to enter targeting the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level where
we can also find confluence with the red long period moving
average.

The zone between the 50 and 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement levels is where the sellers should pile in. The buyers
will need a break above that zone to get some control again and target a new
higher high.

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