The NZDUSD closed above it’s 100 day MA on Friday (blue line in the chart above). The MA was at 0.6260. The close was at 0.62636 just a few pips above the MA level. The buyers had tried to move above that moving average on two separate occasions over the last six trading days, but those attempts failed. As a result, traders were hoping for more momentum after the close above the level.
The new high reached 0.6280. That took out the high price from Friday at 0.62762. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price has rotated back below the key moving average level. The moving average currently comes in at 0.62648 today (and moving higher). The current price is trading at 0.62508.
Going forward it would take a break and close above the moving average to increase a bullish bias from a technical perspective. On the downside, traders will be watching the swing area between 0.6184 – 0.6212, and below that the 200 day moving average 0.61603.
Admittedly, the price has been trading above and below both the 100 and 200 day moving averages. Over the last 21 trading days, the price has traded between 0.6280 on the topside, and 0.6084 on the downside. This range of about 196 pips over about a month of trading is not a lot. There is room to roam on a break. Be aware
What will give the sellers more confidence?
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the rising 100 hour moving average of 0.62177 will be a key barometer on any dips now that the price is back below the 100 day moving average. If the price can move below that moving average and stay below, – and then break the support from the daily chart between 0.6184 and 0.6212 – there would be more downside probing (and it would hurt the chances for an upside break). Absent that, however, and the buyers still remain in control and hopes for a break higher remain.