The CADJPY is the biggest mover today

Technical Analysis

The JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest currency today. That has the CADJPY as the biggest mover.

Looking at the currency rankings above, the CADJPY has moved 1.44%. That is just ahead of the USDJPY which has moved 1.40% today.

The USDJPY move to the downside is being supported by sharply lower rates. The two-year rate is now down -26 basis points at 3.870%. The 10 year yield is down -18.6 basis points at 3.396%.

That side of the cross pair is the biggest mover today.

The USDCAD, on the other hand is up 0.07% (basically unchanged). That currency is up despite the sharp move lower in US rates. Why? Crude oil remains lower on the day and that tends to weaken the CAD (at times). Also, PPI data out of Canada was lower than expectations today which is good news for CPI inflation in the future in Canada (weaker CAD) .

So although most of the decline in the CADJPY can be attributed to the sharp fall in the USDJPY, the USDCAD is relatively supported compared to other currencies as well.

What are the charts saying for the CADJPY?

Looking at the CADJPY hourly chart above, the sharp move lower today is retracing the move higher yesterday. Yesterday, the dynamics were the exact opposite. Oil was higher and interest rates were higher as well.

Technically on the hourly chart above, the price yesterday did move back above the 100 hour MA (blue line at 97.187 currently). In the early part of the day, the price continued to trade above and below that MA as market traders were torn (and dynamics of lower oil and lower rates had not yet developed).

However, as the price started to push farther away from the 100 hour MA (and fundamentals shifted), the buyers turned more to sellers and the rout to the downside was on.

That move ultimately took the CADJPY price through the lows from Monday and Wednesday at 95.92 and 95.88. However, the low could not reach the low price from yesterday at 95.706. The price decline has slowed, but it remains just above those low areas.

Going forward, it would now take a move below 95.706 – 95.925 to increase the bearish bias. If done, it would have traders looking toward the January 19 low price for the year at 94.62 (not shown). That level was also the lowest level going back to March 2022.

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