the water some tour there are two of the third concussion you It’s a new month. It’s a new year, but the markets are still sloppy. From yields to stocks to forex, the price action is acting like it is still wobbly from a New Years hangover.
- The US stocks opened higher and are now trading near lows for the day with the Nasdaq down over 1% on the day.
- The US 10 year yield moved to a low of 3.72% but is back up to 3.78% now (still down but near mid-range).
- In the forex, the EURUSD and GBPUSD were sharply lower at the start of the US session but saw a move back higher, only to restart the move back lower. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD also retraced a chunk of their declines, and are moving back lower.
The action is telling me, the market is still trying to find it’s rhythm. Just because the calendar switches, we tend to think the “market” will have a better, clearer idea than what we had last week.
Yes…maybe there are more players. Yes… maybe there is more liquidity.
However, the uncertainty and stories remain still up in the air.
Later this week we will get the US jobs report with expectations of 200K and an unemployment rate of 3.7%. That will be a key release.
Fed officials will be talking again after 10 or so days of silence into the New Year. Other central bankers will be doing the same thing.
Even the technicals have to sort themselves out and get in a rhythm again.
Looking at the GBPUSD, it retraced back to the 200 day, 100 hour and 200 hour MA cluster, and found seller near the top of that cluster. The price is back below 1.2000 now and a swing low area between 1.1991 to 1.2010.
For the EURUSD , it moved down to test the 50% of the 2022 range coming into the US session near 1.05155 (see chart below). Support held.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price snapped back higher to retest a swing area between 1.0584 and 1.05943 (the high reached 1.05966), and moved back down. The inability to get and stay above 1.05943 was what sellers had hoped but there still is the support at the 1.05155 to get to and through to increase the bearish bias.