The USDJPY moved back above the 100 hour MA yesterday in the early European session (for the 2nd time on the day). A corrective move lower retested that MA line and pushed toward the 200 hour MA in the US afternoon session.
After a dip today in the Asian session, the pair moved back higher to retest the 200 hour MA and found sellers in the London morning session. Risk was defined and limited. Traders used the level to lean against.
Since then, the price has been stepping down and back to the 100 hour MA.
Traders on both sides will now battle it out at the risk defining level at the 100 hour MA. Dip buyers will use the level to lean against with stops on a break below.
The sellers from above can either use the level as a take profit , or the next key level to get below to increase the bearish bias.
A break below will have traders looking toward the swing area beween 132.24 to 132.43.
Fundamentally, the USDJPY has been trended up as the BOJ has maintained the pedal to the stiumulus metal. while the Fed has been putting on the tightening brakes. However, after reaching 1998 highs in mid-July, the corrective flows lower have provided some downside wins at least in the short term.
Having said that, looking at the daily chart, the low from earlier this week found support buyers near its 100 day moving average currently at 130.561 (see daily chart below). The subsequent move to the upside took the price back above the swing area between 131.23 and 131.483. The price remains above both those levels (the 100 day MA is at 130.561). If the sellers are to take more control in the face of the fundamentals, the technicals have to get back below those two targets.