The signal from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at this point is probably less important than the breathless recession-mongering/calling in financial markets. This indicator is one of many but it’s nearly front page news now. Is that a sign that fear has gone too far?
After this week’s releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Census Bureau, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.8 percent and -15.1 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and -14.9 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth decreased from 0.38 percentage points to 0.21 percentage points.
We will get the next update after tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report.