4 reasons for NZD/USD to trade higher (fair value model is 0.7420)


BNZ have a proprietary fair value model for the New Zealand dollar:

  • Our short-term fair value model estimate for the NZD has pushed up to 0.7420, the highest level since 2014

Analysts at the bank outline 4 points that ought to be NZD positive, in summary:

  1. Our risk appetite index rose to 72% on Friday, its highest level since pre-COVID, (… VIX index continuing to trend lower … high yield credit spreads continuing to grind lower)
  2. commodity prices continue to trend higher (reflective of the positive outlook for the global economy, and inflationary backdrop)
  3. domestic New Zealand economic data point to stronger growth than expected
  4. the RBNZ recently signalled tighter policy from mid next year

0.7420 would take NZD/USD back to its February high

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