Colombian peso breaks the trend as protests eyed

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The rise since April is mostly wiped out

There is an opportunity in Colombia as negotiations continue with protestors.

The temperature in the situation looks to be falling as road blocks diminish. There was even a large counter protest in Bogota this week.

USD/COP jumped at the outset of the unrest but it’s now threatening to fall below where it was in early April. This week, the pair also cut through an uptrend that started early in 2021.

Scale back further and USD/COP still hasn’t recouped pandemic losses. Colombia is a heavily export-dependent economy and about 57% of its exports are petroleum products. That industry has been only lightly disrupted by protests and will quickly rebound.  GDP is expected to rise 5.1% this year after a 6.8% decline in 2020.

Also note on the chart the series of lower highs starting after the pandemic spike. Cases are continued to rise in June and are near the highest ever and that’s troubling but they’re administering around 250K vaccine doses per day. Once the pandemic is over, there’s lots to like about Colombia and the peso.

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