Trade ideas thread – European session 30 March 2021


Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

The dollar is still holding its ground for the most part and with higher Treasury yields, yen pairs look to break higher once again with USD/JPY on approach to 110.00.

The pair has broken above its June highs to climb to its highest level since March last year, though offers and large expiries in and around the figure level may still limit gains for the time being. However, a lot still rides on bond market sentiment.

The Treasury yield curve is steepening again with 10-year yields rising to 1.74%, nearing the March highs at 1.75%. While the steeper for longer narrative is much anticipated, the pace of the move is still something that market participants need to contend with.

In equities, that continues to see a rotation out of tech into value with the Dow advancing yesterday and the Nasdaq finishing lower. I would expect that trend to stay the course as long as the bond market narrative keeps this way.

Elsewhere, precious metals continue to be offered and I still don’t see much reason for gold to bounce back at this stage as it nears $1,700.

Silver is also caught in a bit of a bind as it falls below its 200-day moving average and potentially looks towards the 18 January low near $24.

I’d argue that there are some good dip buying opportunities there but I’d be more confident if gold does show some signs of stabilisation. Otherwise, that might pressure the precious metals space altogether especially if ETF selling continues.

What are your views on the market right now? Share your thoughts/ideas with the ForexLive community here.

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