NZDUSD cracks below the 100 day MA and runs. Where is support?

Technical Analysis

Little in the way of corrective action today.

The NZD is the runaway weakest currency of the day.  Helping the bias is the pair cracking below the 100 day MA for the first time since Oct/Nov 2020. At that time, the breaks were very modest. You have to go back to May 2020 when the price was moving up from the March low, for more price action below the 100 day MA. The MA at that time was down at 0.6197. The current price is much higher at 0.70288.  

Sellers jumped on the break and the price has continue to trend lower in trading today. A new session low just reached 0.70193. The next key target comes in around 0.7001 (swing lows going back to December). The 50% retracement of the move up from the August swing low level comes in at 0.69761. That would be the next target on the break of the 0.7000 level on the daily chart.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the 100 and 200 hour provided resistance both yesterday and on Friday.  Stay below those moving averages The sellers more control.  The break today of the swing low from March 10 and yesterday at 0.7130 to 0.71344 was a bearish move as well as the swing area between 0.7098 and 0.71034. The 100 day moving average at 0.7109 was also in that area. 

Looking at the hourly chart, there are very few green bars and lots of red bars on the run lower indicative of strong selling.  It is hard to catch a falling knife, but the 0.7000 area is as good area to put in a toe in the water. However, I would  expect stops on a break as trends go further than traders expect and the price is certainly trending today.  

What would change the trend picture intraday at least?

Looking at the 5 minute chart, the selling has been relentless. The price has not approached the falling 100 bar moving average all day long. That moving average currently comes in at 0.70484 and falling.   If the price should move above that moving average, that would be an intraday win for buyers.  Until then, the sellers are still in control.  

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