Technical Analysis

The AUD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is modestly weaker today. Overall the moves in the currencies are off to a slow start for the runup to the the Christmas/New Year holiday. Hanukkah began yesterday at sunset. The biggest mover is the AUDNZD which

The USDCAD – like many pairs this week – saw the pair move in the USD downward direction, only to rebound after the Fed and the follow through buying today (partly from flight to safety after ECB become more hawkish). The move to the upside moved up to test a topside trend line on the

The USDCAD is moving to a new high for the day, and in the process is extending toward the high from December at 1.3699. The price just traded to 1.3293. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action today initially moved to the downside testing the rising 200 hour moving average (green line in the

The AUDUSD is lower on the day now after rising in the early Asian session. The high price for the day fell short of the swing area between 0.6738 0.67437 (see red numbered circles and lower yellow area on the chart above). The high price could only reach 0.67353 before rotating back to the downside.

The flight into the safety of the JPY is continuing with the USDJPY moving lower as stocks keep most of their declines. Looking at the hourly chart, the USDJPY tried to extend above a swing area going back to November 28 between 137.48 and 137.85 and the 50% of the range since November 21 during

The USDCHF moved higher today and in the process moved up to test the 200 hour MA at 0.93362 (green line in the chart above). The price high reached 0.9335 and backed off. The current price is at 0.9322. Earlier today, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA and a downward sloping trend line,

The JPY is finding the safe haven bid today after not finding it yesterday. It is the strongest of the majors. The CHF, a safe haven currency normally, is not finding a bid as it is the weakest of the majors today. HMMMM. The USD is mixed today after rising yesterday. The EURUSD is mixed

The EURUSD certainly had a volatile down and up and down session. IN the last post on the EURUSD earlier today, the pair was testing support against the 100 hour MA, 50% of the move up from the December 7 low and a swing area on the hourly chart. All that support came in between

The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The Fed raised rates by 50 basis points yesterday but Chair Powell and the Fed raised the terminal rate to 5.10% from 4.6%. That was above the markets expectations. Meanwhile the BOE hiked by a similar 50 bps and

The EURUSD is trading near 6 month highs heading into the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, lowering the pace of rate hikes from 75 basis points over the last four meetings. The terminal rate will be of interest by market participants with

After a trend-like move, the corrections help to define the breadth and support for the trend. If the 38.2% retracement of the trend run holds, that is indicative of support buyers looking to hop on. If that level and the 50% of the same move are both broken, that is generally not good for the

Much of focus in the markets are interrelated. Stocks go higher, dollar moves lower, yields move lower, gold goes higher. That is the playbook. Then you look inside and see what you can see. Looking at a bellwether in the stock market, Microsoft, it gapped higher today and in the process moved above its 100

This week we have two main risk events: the US CPI report and the FOMC meeting. These events will move the market in one way or the other depending on their outcomes. The current sentiment is bearish because after an incredible rally fuelled by worse than expected economic data and less hawkish Fed, the market

The USDJPY is trading at new highs and in the process is testing the highs from last week at 137.85. The high price just reached 137.836. Looking at the daily chart, the price has also moved back above the broken 38.2% retracement of the 2022 trading range at 137.24 and above the November lows which

The broader S&P and Nasdaq are trying to stay above some MA support on their respective 4-hour chart today. For the S&P, it dipped below its 200 bar MA late yesterday. Today, the low at 3922.68, also fell below the MA at 3928.22, but the price is back above the level at 3945.28 currently. For

In what may be “par for the course” going forward as the market awaits things like the CPI, the Fed and the New Year, the GBPUSD moved up to the target 100 hour MA and swing level nears 1.22212, and backed off to the next downside target support at the 38.2% of the move up

The week is finally here. The US CPI will kickstart the markets on Tuesday and that will transition into the Fed decision on Wednesday. Then when that is done, the SNB, BOE and ECB will all announce their interest rate decisions on Friday before the transition into the year end. To better prepare, it is

The US 10 year yield has fallen to a low of 3.408% today is currently trading at 3.448%. The move to the downside was strong enough to take the yield back below its 100 day moving average of 3.494%. The last time the yield traded below the 100 day moving averages back on August 19.