Technical Analysis

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $70.09. The low for the day reached $68.68. The high for the day extended up to $70.66. Technically, the price low today stalled right near its 200-hour moving average. That moving average is currently at $68.62. The subsequent move to the upside also moved back above

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, we finally got the breakout in gold after a softer than expected US PPI report. That was kind of a strange move but eventually the momentum picked up and we got the rally into new all-time highs. Late Thursday we have also got WSJ’s Timiraos publishing an article suggesting that a

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The AUDUSD is higher for the week after dipping lower earlier in the week where the 200 day moving average stalled the fall. The subsequent move to the upside was able to extend above resistance rotated back down toward support and extend above resistance and and step pattern defined by technical levels. Today the run

The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above

The EURUSD is running to a new high for the day up to 1.10597. That has now taken the price of the pair above its 200-hour MA at 1.10563. Traders will be looking for more upside momentum on the break. The price is also moving away from the 100-hour MA AND the broken 38.2% of

The USDCAD is finding buyers against its rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.35756 (see rising blue line on the chart below). Stay above that moving average will keep the buyers more in control. Also in play is a 200 day moving average at 1.35889. On the topside, there is work to do to

The USDCHF has moved higher today and in the process, has stretched toward the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August swing high. That retracement level comes in at 0.8517, and that is where sellers started to lean against of earlier today and on the most recent hourly bar. Getting above that level would

The USDCAD has traded down and back up today. The low price earliers today, moved below the 200-day MA at 1.3589 which was a tilt back to the downside after trading above that level yesterday. However, the price moved back higher in the European session and moved higher after the CPI data today. That move

The US yields are trading at new session lows. The two-year is trading at 3.598%. That’s the lowest level going back to March 2023. The 10 year yield is an 3.642%. That’s its lowest level going back to June 2023. The low in yields has the USDJPY also extending back toward session lows for the

The major US stock indices have seen a run lower over the last hour or so of trading. The move lower now has the Dow down around -400 points or 1%. It was up 134 points at session highs. The S&P is down -23.36 points or -0.42%. At highs the index was up 24.08 points

The AUDUSD moved lower on Friday helped by risk-off sentiment from the tumble in US stocks. In trading today, selling has continued after a rise in the early Asian session. The fall has taken the price of the AUDUSD to a key technical support level defined by three separate technical tools: The 38.2% retracement of

The NZDUSD continued its run to the downside in trading today after sharp declines on Friday helped by the risk-off sentiment on stock selling, and lower commodities. The down momentum continued today and carried the price down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low to the August high. That level

The US jobs report was a bit weaker than expectations especially when you consider the -86,000 revision to the prior month’s. Nonfarm payroll rose by 142K lower than the 161K estimate but the unemployment rate did fall to 4.2% from 4.3%. The USD dollar had an up-and-down reaction sending the three major currency pairs to

Both the US and Canadian jobs report will released today. In the US, the market is breathing a little sigh of relief in that the numbers weren’t as weak as last month. The unemployment rate did tick down to 4.2% from 4.3%. In Canada, the unemployment rate moved higher 26.6% which was a highest level