Technical Analysis

The EURUSD started the trading date near highs for the day and also testing its falling 200 hour moving average and downward sloping trendline on the hourly chart below). The level came near 1.09000 level. The ADP report showed a eye opening 497K new jobs with leisure and hospitality adding 232K, education and health services

The USD started the day as the weakest of the major currencies. That is no longer the case as stronger data has set the yield racing to the upside. The 2 year yield is now up 14 basis points while the 10 year is up 12.6 basis points. The USD is making new highs for

The USDCAD fell to – and through – the 200-hour MA (and a swing area between 1.3207 – 1.32299) yesterday, but failed. The price rebounded into the close modestly. Trading today, the Asian session saw increased upside momentum. The price ultimately broke above its 100-hour movie average (blue line in the chart above) currently at

In the earlier video (see below), on the EURUSD I spoke to the 200-hour MA above and the 38.2% below. The price needed to get above the 200-hour MA or below the 38.2% retracement below. You can watch the video below. The high for the US session stayed below the 200-hour MA keeping the sellers

Since the last FOMC meeting the US economic data surprised consistently to the upside leading to a more hawkish pricing for interest rates expectations. In fact, Fed Chair Powell said that the majority of the FOMC expects two or more rate hikes coming if the economy performs as expected. Conversely, the UK employment and inflation

The market expects the Fed to hike by 25 bps at the July meeting given that the economic data kept on surprising to the upside since the last FOMC meeting, although a lot will depend on the next NFP and CPI reports. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that they expect two or more rate hikes if

It is a holiday in Canada and a semi-holiday in the US (although all markets are open) as the 4th of July holiday is looming tomorrow. So activity nevertheless is likely to slow. Nevertheless, the USDJPY is testing some key support defined by the rising 100-hour moving average. That level currently comes in at 144.383.

Traders in the AUDUSD are using moving averages on the top and bottom sides to define the boundaries today. Looking at the chart below, the AUDUSD moved higher after the weaker US ISM manufacturing data, but ran into a cluster of moving averages including: 200-hour moving average of 0.66814 200-day moving average of 0.66912 100-day

The GBPUSD has snapped back to the upside after tamer core PCE data. The move to the upside comes after the pair tested a swing area going back to June 12 – 14 (see green number circles) and the swing low from Wednesday’s trade at 1.2599. Recall yesterday, the price also tested that level then

The AUDUSD has moved above the 100-hour moving average of 0.66485. That is the first trade above that moving average since falling below on June 20. The price has also moved above a broken swing area between 0.6637 and 0.6652. The area is now close support for buyers looking for more upside. Move back below

The NZDUSD has not escaped the USD selling today. The pair is up 1.15% on the day (NZD higher/USD lower). At current levels, it’s the largest increase since April 13 when the pair rose by 1.386%. Looking at the hourly chart, the move to the upside took the price above a swing area between 0.6104

As a market heads into the close for the week, month, and quarter, the S&P today is extending to new highs for the year. The price extended above the June 16 high at 4448.47 to an intraday high of 4456.72. The current price trades at 4452.22. Technically, this month’s low came on June 1 (the

The USDJPY moved lower today, coming off the boil a bit (see videos here and here).The drift lower started against a channel trend line against swing highs from this week (green numbered circles). The lows have inched below the lower channel trend line but stalled ahead of the rising 100-hour MA (blue line) currently at

The USDCAD moved up to test a swing area between 1.3271 and 1.3285 on Wednesday, and again yesterday on 2 separate tests. The high price yesterday stalled right against the high of that swing area at 1.3285. It couldn’t get through and make a run at the 38.2% retracement above at 1.33222. In trading today,

I know…. the USDJPY is overbought. The RSI is above the 70 level indicative of an overbought condition in the USDJPY. The RSI in the USDJPY has not been this high since October 2022. The problem is the USDJPY has been overbought over the last 6-7 days. During that time, the price has moved up

The AUDUSD has been stepping lower since peaking on June 16. Yesterday the pair: Stayed below the 20200-dayoving average of 0.66904 Extended below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 1 low as 0.66785. Moved below a swing area between 0.6637 and 0.6652 Moved below the 61.8% retracement of the move up

The AUDUSD market shifted further into seller control today following the closes below the 200-day Moving Average (MA) on Monday and Tuesday, at 0.66905. Yesterday, the pair closed slightly beneath the MA at 0.6686, while Monday’s closing price was 0.6674. Today’s high reached 0.66887 ahead of monthly Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The

The NZD is the weakest of the major currencies. The NZDUSD is the biggest mover. The pair started it’s shoved to the downside after breaking below its 200 day moving average. I spoke to that level in the post andvideo released yesterday (CLICK HERE). The momentum to the downside was held by weaker Australian CPI