Technical Analysis

US: The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting. Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures coming in at 0.16%. The US PMIs missed expectations across the board last week. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson

US: The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged. Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table. Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures coming in at 0.16%. The US PMIs missed expectations across

This first half of the week was highlighted by big misses in the US economic data like Job Openings, Consumer Confidence and ADP. These might be the first signs that a recession is indeed on the horizon as the labour market is starting to show weakness. In fact, the market is no longer seeing the

The AUDUSD sellers had their shot in early US trading below a swing area between 0.6453 to 0.6458. They missed. The subsequent move to the upside then moved through the high from last week at 0.6784, but could not extend above the high from 2 weeks ago at 0.65228. Buyers turn to sellers.. The buyers

EURJPY tests the September 2008 high The EURJPY is trading to a high of 159.608 in trading today. That is a new high for the year and new high going all the way back to September 2008 when the high price in that month also reached 159.608. The high price from July extended up to

US yields are moving to new lows. The snapshot shows: 2 year yield 4.81%, -12.8 basis points 5 year yield 4.264% -12.6 basis points 10 year yield 4.111% -10.0 basis points 30 year yield 4.229%, -6.0 basis points The US yields moving lower, is giving support to US stocks. Looking at them, the major indices

USDJPY tests a cluster of support The USDJPY is reversing hard to the downside as yields fall after weaker US data. The 2-year yield is now down -12.2 basis points. The 10-year yield is now down -8.1 basis points. The fall in the USDJPY has taken the price from 147.368 to 145.886. That has the

The quick rise in the US real yields and the US Dollar in August weighed a lot on Gold and the yellow metal sold off with very shallow pullbacks along the way. Recently, the less hawkish comments from Fed members and the miss in the US PMIs gave Gold some support as the Treasury yields

Last week was the Jackson Hole Symposium week and we have heard from many Fed members about their opinions on the momentary policy going forward. There seems to be a consensus for a pause in September as they try to “carefully” assess the lag effects of their tightening to date. Nonetheless, they are ready to

The USDCAD moved up to retest Wednesday’s high in trading today at the 1.3603 level and found willing sellers. The relatively random level (although it’s around the round number 1.3600), will be a barometer for further bullish bias on a break today. If done, traders will look toward another swing area near 1.36534 which comes

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NZDUSD tests trend line support and bounces The NZDUSD – like other currencies versus the US dollar – has seen USD buying/NZDUSD selling. THe prices low reached a new low going back to November 2020 at 0.5895. The low price today reached 0.5885. At the session low, the price was attesting a lower trendline currently

With the month ending next Thursday, what moves did we see in August? The USD moved higher versus all the major currencies: DXY: Looking at the dollar index (weighted dollar index), it moved up 2.28% this month. Looking at the daily chart, the price started the month trading above and below the 100-day moving average

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $79.83. That’s up $0.78 or 0.99%. For the week, the price-1.03% or $-0.87 (at current levels). It is the 2nd consecutive week to the downside after last week’s decline of -3.04%. Crude oil Looking at the chart above, at the lows this week, the price

The USD initially moved lower during and after the Fed Powell speech at Jackson Hole. However, that trend has reversed with the dollar moving back to the upside. Technically speaking, the move lower in the dollar did find willing buyers against technical levels in most of the major currency pairs. I outlined those levels in

The USDCHF is extending to new highs after breaking above the swing highs from earlier this week and also last week at 0.88273. Staying above that level is more bullish. The break to the upside has also reached the 50% midpoint of the move down from the end of May high. That level comes in

EURUSD bounces and tests swing area up to 1.08485 The EURUSD has moved back to the upside after starting the US session moving to the downside. The low in the New York session reached 1.08135. I came up short of the low from yesterday at 1.08017 and the 200 day moving average at 1.0799. The

The major indices all closed higher today led by the Nasdaq index ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close. Will the earnings season end on a high note or a low note? The earnings release is expected to be at around 4:20 PM ET with estimates of $2.09 EPS on revenues of $11.224 billion. The