Technical Analysis

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

USD/JPY daily USD/JPY soared after stronger US retail sales but stalled right at a key level. It rose to 149.32, just two pips shy of the 38.2% retracement of the swan dive from 161.80 to 141.67. It’s stalled there and backed off to 148.96. The Fibonnaci level is a classic barrier in a bounce from

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. That led to a key breakout in the NZDUSD pair which didn’t last as the RBNZ tonight cut rates by 25

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. The UK CPI this morning missed estimates across the board as well and raised the probabilities of a back-to-back cut in

The major US indices got a boost from lower-than-expected PPI data. Tomorrow the CPI will be released. The PPI data does not necessarily translate into the CPI, but there is some crossover to the PCE data that will be released later this month. Tomorrow, CPI is expected to show a 0.2% gain after a -0.1%

Fundamental Overview As many other markets, crude oil bottomed out around last Monday as growth fears abated and started to slowly gain ground following catalysts like the appointment of the new Hamas leader and good US jobless claims. Yesterday we got another strong wave of buying as we got a Fox report saying that Iran

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Fundamental Overview The Swiss Franc lost some more ground against the USD last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims figures came out better than expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a

On Wednesday, the USDCHF moved back above its 100-hour moving average and although the price corrected lower into yesterday’s Asian and early European session, the downside momentum found willing buyers near that moving average level. The subsequent rise on the back of higher US stocks yesterday (and the unwinding of the flight to safety flows

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japan stocks plummeted. However, after breaking below the low from 2024 at 0.63614, the price could only make it to 0.6348 before it snapped back to the upside and started to start the recovery. Although that recovery had its fits and starts

The NZDUSD fell to a new low for the year on Monday on the back of the sharp fall in the Nikkei 225 (-12.4%). However, that new low only took out the April 2024 low by a few pips, and the price snapped higher. The momentum stalled near highs from last week nearly 0.5982 and

The Canada jobs data had something for everyone today. The unemployment rate was steady vs. last month at 6.4%, but lower than the estimate of 6.5%. The employment data showed a decline of -2.8K for the 2nd consecutive month decline, but there was 61K of full time jobs but -64K of part time jobs. So

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of

The AUD/USD is reaching new session highs, breaking above two of four key technical levels: the 50% retracement of the move down from July at 0.6473 and the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 0.6577. The current price is trading at 0.6586. The next targets are the 200-day moving average at 0.6592 and

Fundamental Overview Crude oil sold off pretty heavily in the latter part of last week as we got some very weak US data releases first with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and then with the NFP report. The market eventually bounced back on Monday and extended the gains yesterday with the appointment of the new Hamas