Technical Analysis

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As the US session begins and traders await the US PCE data at 8:30 AM ET (0.3% expected for the headline and the core PCE), the EURUSD and the GBPUSD have seen down and up price action. The USDJPY is stretching higher. US stocks are higher. Yields are lower. Of note, there has been 5

USDCAD technicals The USD/CAD continued its upward momentum yesterday, breaking above a key swing level at 1.4366 before pushing through the 38.2% retracement of the February high-to-low decline at 1.4395. This move signaled renewed buying interest, propelling the pair to a new corrective high of 1.4452 before sellers emerged. That high pushed the price into

Yesterday, the NASDAQ fell outside a consolidated range going back to November. I wrote about it in this post here: In that post, I outlined the 200-day MA as a key target (see yellow box) saying “A hold above this level could slow the selloff”. . Today, the price got within sniffing distance of that

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported against most major currencies, especially the commodity currencies, as the markets remain in a risk-off mood following some bad US data releases. In fact, since last Friday, we got weak US Flash Services PMI, UMich final Consumer Sentiment and yesterday a weak US Consumer Confidence report. The

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported against most major currencies, especially the commodity currencies, as the markets remain in a risk-off mood following some bad US data releases. In fact, since last Friday, we got weak US Flash Services PMI, UMich final Consumer Sentiment and yesterday a weak US Consumer Confidence report. The

The EURUSD has been choppy today, with price action swinging between key technical levels. The Asia session saw an initial move higher, testing the weekly high at 1.0527 and the January high at 1.05325. The peak reached 1.05242 before sellers regained control, pushing the pair lower. As the U.S. session begins, EURUSD has dipped below

The USDJPY fell below the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low to the January 2025 high at 149.22 yesterday and also a swing area between 149.07 AND 149.39. That sent the pair lower that ultimately broke below the low from early December at 148.64 (low reached 148.56, but stalled and bounced.

The GBPUSD moved above the 100 day MA for the first time since November 2024 on Thursday of last week. The last 5 trading days has seen the price trade above and below that MA suggestive of a market that is not sure of the next “shove” (higher or lower). Having said that, on the

The USDCHF broke to new 2025 lows yesterday with momentum. In the post yesterday (see post here and the chart from that post below), I targeted the swing area at 0.8914 to 0.8923 and warned that the area “should give buyers a cause to pause” the move lower. USDCHF The chart below shows that buyers

As the trading day nears its close, USDCHF is testing the lower boundary of its multi-week trading range, which has been in place since mid-December. On the 4-hour chart, the pair formed a double top at the January high two weeks ago before reversing lower. Last week, the price found buyers at range support (0.8965

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar this week has been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to less dovish comments from Fed’s Waller on Tuesday which would

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar this week has been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to less dovish comments from Fed’s Waller on Tuesday which would

The USDJPY moved sharply lower yesterday, testing the high of a key swing area between 149.08 and 149.39, with the low reaching 149.39. In the Asian session, the price dipped further to 149.27, pushing deeper into the swing area and testing the 50% retracement level of the move from the September 2024 low to the

The EURUSD fell to the week’s lows on Wednesday, testing the 200-hour moving average (MA) and the 38.2% retracement of the February trading range. Support held, leading to a bounce higher. On Thursday, the price extended its recovery, moving back above the 100-hour MA, which had previously acted as resistance on Wednesday before the drop.

The USDCAD began the week near its lowest level since mid-December. After an early rebound, the pair moved above the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line) on Wednesday, extending gains toward the 200-hour moving average (green line) on both Wednesday and Thursday. However, sellers defended the 200-hour MA, leading to a decline alongside broader USD

The USDCHF started the week with an upward move, peaking on Wednesday, before reversing lower through Wednesday and Thursday. Friday’s price action has been choppy, with no clear directional momentum. From a technical perspective, the key takeaway is that the weekly lows have consistently found support buyers within the 0.8965 – 0.8975 swing area. This

The GBPUSD spent the first half of the week trading choppily around the 38.2% retracement of the September high to January low at 1.26076, reflecting market indecision. On Wednesday, after a move lower, buyers stepped in just ahead of the 1.25499 swing high from two weeks ago, pushing the pair back above the 38.2% retracement