The highlights of yesterday’s thread here are still the notable standouts with the difference being that the dollar is now weaker and contesting the technical breaks mentioned. US retail sales will add to the mix today and we will see if the greenback can stay afloat, or if we are headed for a stronger downside
News
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Friday, after falling 1% in the previous session, as the market weighed supportive supply conditions ahead of the International Energy Agency‘s monthly demand outlook. Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $86.26 per barrel by 0035 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 20
Dollar remains somewhat soft in the Asian trading session, though it hasn’t seen any follow-through selling. Hawkish FOMC minutes have partially offset the impact of consumer inflation data on the currency. The broader financial markets also lack a clear direction, as US stock indexes closed lower after initial rally. Benchmark treasury yields mostly reversed their
The Atlanta Fed Wage growth tracker moved up to +6.4% in March versus 6.1% in February.. The tracker is a three month moving average of the median wage growth. For people who changed jobs, wage growth increased by 7.3% versus 6.7% previously For people not changing jobs the wage gains were 5.9% versus 5.8% This
Gold rose to a more than one-year high on Thursday as more weak U.S. economic readings bolstered bets for a pause in interest rate hikes, with prospects of a mild recession also sending investors scurrying for the safe-haven metal. Spot gold was up 1.3% to $2,040.10 per ounce by 9:31 a.m. EDT (1331 GMT), its
Dollar’s decline continues in early trading, fueled by weaker-than-expected upstream inflation and job data, pushing the greenback to its lowest level against Euro this year. The Swiss Franc emerges as today’s biggest winner, bolstered by falling benchmark yields in Germany and the UK. Meanwhile, Euro benefits from hawkish remarks by ECB officials, while Australian dollar
At the time of writing, the CME Fedwatch Tool is indicating roughly 69% odds that we will see a 25 bps rate hike next month. The remaining 31% odds are siding with no change, and overall pricing hasn’t changed drastically from before the US CPI data yesterday and earlier this week here. While you would
The impact of El Nino is proportional to its severity. This time, we anticipate a weak El Nino as opposed to a strong El Nino, a similar scenario in 2014 and 2018. In both years, India’s staple grain production was unaffected. We do not believe we should be unduly concerned about crop production at this
Australian Dollar is having a broad recovery in Asian session today, bolstered by improvements in both consumer and business confidence data. While the rally’s strength is still limited, Aussie appears to have some room for further upside before encountering near-term resistance levels. European majors follow as the next strongest, with Sterling holding a slight advantage
Goldman Sachs has lowered its terminal fed target range to 5.0% -5.25% from 5.25% to 5.5%. They see a May 25 basis point hike but no longer see a June hike of the same magnitude. They site the expectations for shelter costs to start to come down lowering the need for the Fed to continue
NEW DELHI: Gold and silver futures started Wednesday’s session on a strong note ahead of key inflation data from India and the US and Federal Reserve policy minutes. The June gold futures rose Rs 260 or 0.43% per 10 grams to Rs 60,765 while May Silver futures were trading at Rs 75,677 per kg, up
The overall set of US consumer inflation reports appears to have been well received by investors. DOW futures jumped over 200 points following the release and maintained most of the gains before open, while treasury yields tumbled at both short and long ends. Although Fed is still on track to deliver another rate hike in
We’re heading towards another guessing game now as all the bets today are going to involve the US CPI data release. If the numbers do come in around estimates, I would argue it should support a 25 bps rate hike at the margin. But as markets digest the numbers, there might be more pushing and
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as the dollar pulled back, with investors focussing on key U.S. inflation data due later in the day for signs on how close interest rates are to peaking. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,005.18 per ounce, as of 0051 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to
Market volatility could see a significant uptick today with three heavyweight events on the schedule. US consumer inflation data for March has the potential to shift market expectations regarding the Fed’s rate path. While headline CPI is expected to drop for the ninth consecutive month to 5.2%, core inflation is forecast to break its five-month
Not anticipating a downturn in the economy although it is a possibility Friendshoring is approach to deal with supply chain risks but retains tremendous scope for global trade to continue Argument that friendshoring will cause fragmentation is not valid Russia’s war in Ukraine showed importance of diversifying supply chains deeply concerned over Russia’s detention of
Gold price jumped by Rs 280 to Rs 60,680 per 10 gram in the national capital on Tuesday amid gains in the precious metal’s prices internationally, according to HDFC Securities. In the previous trade, the yellow metal had ended at Rs 60,400 per 10 gram. Silver also climbed by Rs 470 to Rs 74,950 per
European majors are taking center stage today as markets reopen after holidays. Although not spectacular, Eurozone data revealed improvements in investor confidence, which has bolstered overall market sentiment. Major European indexes and benchmark treasury yields are trading slightly higher. In contrast, commodity currencies and Dollar are trading on the softer side, while Yen is mixed