EUR/USD is trading in a tight range below 1.1450. Economists at OCBC bank expect the world’s most popular currency pair to test the 1.1480/1.1500 area. Support located at 1.1400 “The market’s attempt to price in more hawkish ECB expectations is making us more positive on the EUR in the medium term, and perhaps looking for
FX
The S&P 500 reversed an early session dip to 4450 to trade above 4500, up more nearly 1.0%. Investors were digesting strong earnings from Amazon one day after the Facebook horror show and a strong US jobs report. Trade was choppy towards the start of the US session as investors weighed up the implications of
GBP/JPY pulled back under 156.00 on Friday, though the bullish trend since January remains in play. The pair will be focused on risk appetite, comments from BoE’s Bailey and UK GDP figures next week. Despite a modest rally in the US equity space that would normally have a positive impact on GBP/JPY, the pair pulled
The commodity-linked New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session with losses of 0.69%. The NZD/JPY retracement from weekly tops could lead to further losses below 76.00. The NZD/JPY slumps for the second time in the week as traders get headed into the weekend. As Wall Street closed and thin liquidity conditions hit the FX market, the
WTI hit fresh seven-year highs at $93.00/barrel in recent trade as the recent melt-up accelerated. WTI is on course to post a seventh successive weekly gain during which time it has rallied over 30%. Oil bulls put their foot on the accelerator on Friday, driving prices to fresh seven-year highs and leaving major crude benchmarks
Markets are expecting too much tightening from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) warn analysts at CIBC. They see the USD/ZAR at 15.75 by the end of the first quarter and at 16.00 by mid-year. Key Quotes: “The South African Reserve Bank has followed the November hike with a second 25bp move, taking rates
GBP/USD retreats from intraday high, stays firmer for the sixth consecutive day around fortnight top. Fears of UK PM Johnson’s sacking, German official’s warning to Britain and Northern Ireland’s halt to Brexit checks probe bulls. BOE announced 0.25% rate hike to battle inflation, US data came in mixed. DXY renews 13-day low, despite firmer yields
On Friday, the official US employment report is due. Market consensus points to an increase of 150K in payrolls. Recent data, like the ADP report, warns about a negative reading. Analysts from TD Securities estimate a decline of 200K in jobs in January. Key Quotes: “Payrolls likely plunged in January, but only because of temporary
Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati downplays expectations of further depreciation of the lira, in his latest interview with the Nikkei Asian Review. Additional quotes “Inflation to peak below 50% in April.” “2022 growth to be around 5%. “No substantial fx interventions since December 19.” Market reaction Despite the encouraging comments from the Turkish official, the
The non-yielding metal is trading above $1805, the trendsetter 200-DMA. The US ADP data was worse than expected; it could be a prelude to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). XAU/USD Technical Outlook: A daily close above the 200-DMA could signal a shift in gold’s trend. Gold (XAU/USD) climbs in the North American session as US T-bond
AUD/USD stays firmer around weekly top during three-day uptrend. Sustained break of two-week-old descending trend line, bullish MACD signals favor buyers. 200-SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level will challenge bullish momentum. AUD/USD bulls attack key Fibonacci retracement level near the weekly top, up 0.12% intraday near 0.7135 heading into Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie pair’s latest
According to analysts at MUFG Bank, the Turkish lira will remain weak against the US dollar during the first half of the year. They forecast USD/TRY at 14.500 by the first quarter and at 16.000 by the second quarter. Key quotes: “The lira has been notably more stable at the start of the new year
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 1: The corrective downside in the greenback appears well and sound for another session on Tuesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) keeping the negative mood in the first half of the week. The leg lower in the greenback came after the index clinched new
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly on Monday noted that if the Federal Funds rate was to reach 1.25% by the end of the year, that would be quite a bit of tightening but still supportive of the economy. Presumably, she is talking about the possibility of five 25bps rate hikes in 2022
AUD/USD bounces off 18-month low as traders brace for RBA amid quiet session. USD extends Friday’s pullback from July 2020 highs amid indecision over the pace of Fed’s rate hike in March. Bulls await clues for the RBA rate hike during 2022, Aussie Private Sector Credit rallied in December. NSW announced an AUD1bn package to
US equities surged in late trade after a broadly positive session as Fed bets eased after softer wage data. The S&P 500 lept to close above the 4400 level again to close 2.4% higher and end the week positive. Apple led the charge after positive Q4 earnings and record iPhone sales. US equity markets posted
The USD/JPY slides 0.15% as investors prepare for the weekend. The greenback finished the week above 97.00 for the first time since June 2020. USD/JPY is upward biased, but the pair could print a leg-down before resuming the uptrend. As Wall Street closes, the USD/JPY slides ahead of the weekend, spurred by the US 10-year
The Australian dollar fell off the cliff against the Japanese yen, down 0.77%. Market sentiment has improved in the session, but in the FX market, safe-haven peers rise. AUD/JPY bears look forward to a Weekly/Friday close below 80.70, which would increase the odds for a fall towards 78.78. On Friday, as the North American session