The USDJPY is trading in a modest range today at 59 pips vs the 22 day average (about a month of trading) at 139 pips.
The price high came in at 158.064. That was just short of the high price from last week at 158.080. Sellers leaned and pushed the price mostly lower. The low price in the current hour just reached 157.495. That was just below its 100 hour moving average of 157.503 but just barely.
Getting and staying below the 100-hour moving average is needed to give the sellers some confidence. Recall going back to December 17 and December 18, the price also tested the rising 100-hour moving just before the FOMC rate decision on December 18. The hawkish Fed pushed the pair higher.
With the consolidation over the last few days, the 100-hour moving average has moved closer to the price making the moving average the key barometer today, and going forward.
If the moving average does hold support, I would expect a break outside the 158.08 high from last week. Looking at the daily chart, there is a wide swing area between 157.665 and 158.86. On a break above 158.08, the 158.86 level would be targeted.(see red numbered circles on the chart below).
Conversely, if the 100 hour MA is broken, the swing high from back in November at 156.74 and the rising 200-hour MA would be targeted at 156.474.