GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Sellers Regain Control
The GBPUSD started the week in a choppy trading range, with buyers repeatedly testing the 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. Over the first four days (and last Friday), the price briefly moved above this MA multiple times, but each attempt quickly failed. On Thursday, buyers gave up, momentum shifted, and sellers took control.
Today, selling pressure continued, driven by weaker UK data, pushing the price lower and to the upper boundary of a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.2614. A modest bounce during the early US session stalled at resistance within another swing area between 1.2659 and 1.2670, just below the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.2674.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
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Support (Downside):
- 1.2596–1.2614: Swing area providing initial support.
- Below 1.2596: Opens the door for further downside, with the next target at the November low of 1.2486.
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Resistance (Upside):
- 1.2659–1.2674: Immediate resistance zone, including the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart.
- Above 1.2674: Buyers would face additional hurdles, including:
- 100-hour MA at 1.2726
- 200-hour MA at 1.2726
- 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2753
- 50% retracement of the November decline at 1.2767
Outlook for Next Week
- Sellers in Control: As long as the price remains below 1.2674, sellers maintain the upper hand.
- Break Below 1.2596: Strengthens bearish momentum, with traders eyeing the 1.2486 November low.
- Break Above 1.2674: Signals potential bullish momentum, but buyers need to overcome multiple technical barriers to establish control.
Traders should monitor how the price interacts with these swing areas and key moving averages to determine the next directional bias.