The NYT projection has Republicans with 194 seats and Democrats with 173 seats at the moment. And among the key ‘competitive’ districts here, there are still 45 left to officially report. That said, some of the votes are likely to be called imminently. So, let’s take a look at some important details that have surfaced so far.
Among the more tightly ‘competitive’ districts, Iowa 3 has been called for the Republicans while New Mexico 2 and New York 19 has been called for Democrats. Those should not be listed as any upsets, if you cross check that with this piece here (h/t @ admcrlsn):
The way I’d read sentiment on the House race now is to use the NYT list of ‘competitive’ districts identified for each party to win. And then to cross reference that individually to the tilt/lean bias in the above image to get a better sense of any “upsets”.
Taking the above into consideration, the standout result at the moment is Pennsylvania 8. It is supposed to be slightly Democratic leaning but Robert Bresnahan (R) is leading by 2 points against incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) with >95% of votes in. Nebraska 2 is the other one also showing a similar story, with Don Bacon (R) leading by 1.8 points over Tony Vargas (D) also with >95% of votes in.
In the supposed toss up category, Iowa 1 is one spot to watch with Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leading by just 0.1 points over Christina Bohannan (D) with >95% of votes in.
The rest are still seeing lacking in vote count to really draw too much conclusions for the time being. But besides the three highlighted i.e. Pennsylvania 8, Nebraska 2, Iowa 1, everything else is playing out as it should.
And if it stays that way, Republicans might just pip it in the end especially if they can secure the toss ups. But for now, it’s still a little premature to be calling any favourites yet.