Fundamental
Overview
The Nasdaq has been
consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the
pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay.
We are now near the US
elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory
will likely give the stock market a boost on better growth expectations, while
a Harris triumph could be more bearish.
Treasury yields and the
stock market often move in the same direction as long as the move is led by
growth expectations. So, the data, the elections result and the Fed’s reaction
function will be key for the market in the next six months.
Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Nasdaq Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is consolidating around the highs. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting the next major
trendline.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent rangebound price action with the 20265 level acting
as support. If the price gets there, we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally
into a new high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the trendline around the 19800 level.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here. It’s unlikely that we’ll get a breakout today given
the lack of catalysts. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.