Today, the GBPUSD pair experienced an upward movement, driven by a wave of dollar selling in response to lower interest rates. However, the pair’s momentum encountered resistance at a key technical level—the 200-bar Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. This same MA had previously halted the pair’s advance a week ago, leading to a decline in price. The fact that this level has now twice acted as a barrier underscores its significance for future trading. A sustained position below this level would indicate that sellers are maintaining control. Currently, the 200-bar MA is positioned at 1.2667 and is trending downward.
The price has since fallen back to the 100-bar Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, located at 1.26248. Within the current 4-hour bar, the price has fluctuated above and below this level. A further drop below this point could lead to a test of a support zone extending down to 1.2594, followed by a challenge of the 100-day Moving Average at 1.25637.
Should the price breach this key MA level, the next significant target would be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move from the October low, marked at 1.25245. It’s worth noting that, two weeks ago, the price approached this retracement level and encountered strong buying interest. For sellers to gain a firmer hold, they would need to push and maintain the price below the 38.2% retracement threshold.