On the daily chart below for AUDUSD, we can see that after breaking above the downward trendline, the buyers started to have the
upper hand and even managed to breach the 0.67 resistance. The moving
averages are on the verge of crossing upwards, which would be a bad omen for the
sellers. We can see how hard the sellers are fighting back by the long candlesticks
wicks above the 0.67 handle.
Those were created as the Fed
delivered on expectations but sounded less hawkish, giving the buyers some
conviction to try a push to the next resistance at 0.6781. The following days
though the sellers piled in and brought the price back below the 0.67 handle.
This line seems to be important for the market.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the fall after the FOMC
decision, led also to the break below the upward trendline, which was defining
the uptrend. The price since then pulled back to the 0.67 resistance and it’s
likely that we will find sellers here. Moreover, the recent rally came after
the hot US
PMIs, which may indicate that this is just a squeeze on dollar longs and we
may see the USD coming back strongly soon.
This will depend on the economic
data though. If the data keeps coming in strong, then the market should reprice
again interest rates expectations and lead to some dollar strength.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that for the sellers this is a good spot to pile in as they have the 0.67
resistance and the confluence with the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. More conservative sellers may want to wait
for the price to break below the 0.6665 support before jumping onboard.
The buyers, on the other hand,
should find more conviction in case the price breaks again above the 0.67
handle, but they are likely to lean also on the 0.6665 support in case the
price pulls back.