Ever since the SVB and Credit Suisse banking woes have rippled through global markets interest rate expectations have rapidly changed. However, one potential upside from these shocks is that interest rate expectations are now sharply lower for the Fed. So, if the Fed signals a pause or a pivot on Wednesday will that surprise lift the S&P500?
The seasonals are certainly strong. Over the last 25 years, the S&P500 has gained 83% of the time between March 23 and May 2. The average return has been +3.44%. So, would a dovish Fed boost the S&P500 on Wednesday?
Major trade risks: The major trade risk here is if further banking troubles emerge that sink stocks. Also, the Fed may push back against STIR market pricing and that would be a headwind for stocks.