The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The Fed raised rates by 50 basis points yesterday but Chair Powell and the Fed raised the terminal rate to 5.10% from 4.6%. That was above the markets expectations. Meanwhile the BOE hiked by a similar 50 bps and the SNB also raised by 50 bps, but the BOE hike was a bit more of a dovish variety. For the SNB there were some who thought 75 might be appropriate. Nevertheless, the focus is back on the hawkish Fed who sees a terminal rate range of 5% to 5.25% (to get the 5.10% target). The ECB is up next with 50 penciled in as well, with expectations for more rate hikes but perhaps at an even slower pace. The ECB raised by 75 basis points at the last two meetings. So the 50 basis points is a “slowing of the pace”.
The US stocks are trading lower. Yields are marginally lower too as the markets diverge with the expectations the Fed will now err on the tightening side in a similar fashion to what happened at the low in rates. This time last year the Fed was projecting 100 basis points of hikes in 2022. The actual rise was 425 basis points. Gold is lower after the rise in the dollar
Lots of stuff at 8:30 AM as the final dump ahead of the year end holiday. Retail sales, Philly Fed, Initial claims, Empire manufacturing. The ECB presser is at 8:45. Industrial production and Cap utilization will come out at 9:15, and Business inventories at 10 AM ET.
A snapshot of the market is showing:
- spot gold is trading down -$29 or -1.64% at $1777.12
- spot silver is trading down $0.78 or 3.23% at $23.14
- WTI crude oil is trading up marginally at $77.44
- Bitcoin is trading at $17,694 after trading above $18,000 yesterday
In the premarket for US stocks, new features are employing lower levels:
- Dow is down -256 points after yesterday’s -142.29 point decline
- S&P index is down -38 points after yesterday’s -24.31 point decline
- NASDAQ index is trading down -135 points after yesterday’s -85.93 point decline
In the European equity markets, major indices or lower ahead of the ECB rate decision:
- German DAX -1.15%
- France’s CAC -1.15%
- UK’s FTSE 100 -0.34%
- Spain’s Ibex -0.60%
In the US that market, yields a lower:
in the European debt markets, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly higher with the UK lower after their rate decision: