The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged yesterday which diverges from other central banks. But at the same time they intervened in the forex market vs the USD which sent the USDJPY pair sharply lower.
The price low yesterday moved close to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August 1 low. That level comes in near the 140 level. The low yesterday reached 140.338.
The high price before the failed break higher yesterday that prompted the Bank of Japan intervention, was at 145.00.
As a result I put a box around the 140.00 to 145.00 and said:
“What I don’t expect is for an extended run in either direction now that the range has been established for the USDJPY. So expect traders to put on their range trading hats for the time being at least and to respect the red box in the chart below- with the interim levels helping to define the bias in between the extremes.”
The “interim levels” included the 100/.200 hour MAs (see blue and green lines in the chart above converged near 143.37).
Those moving averages are indeed stalling the rally today (the high reached 143.32 just below the MA at 143.37) . Despite the run higher in the USD today vs nearly all the other currencies (the USDCHF is another exception), the USDJPY has seen continued sellers against the MA levels.
Sellers are leaning. Buyers got burned yesterday and the memory is fresh. So upside momentum is limited even with the dollar buying and the fundamental tilt in favor of the USDJPY. Technicals are in control.
What happens if the price moves above? The interim bias would tilt more to the upside, with new risk being the 100/200 hour MA. The 143.80 would be a target, followed by the underside of the broken trend line from yesterday near 144.06. However, I would expect that buyers would still tread lightly and with a wary eye – at least in the near term. So be aware and be prepared of the risks.