There’s not much to really contemplate when looking at markets at the moment as all eyes are on the Fed decision later today. As mentioned earlier, the first thing traders are going to look for will be the rate decision (75 bps or 100 bps) but the main takeaway is more than likely going to be how the Fed positions its views on the economy and balances that out against their resolve to beat inflation.
For now, dollar bulls are not showing much interest but they have been defending key levels on the charts over the past few days. EUR/USD looks to be consolidating a little above 1.0100 and is holding around 1.0140 currently, though any major upside push remains stifled by the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.0283:
Meanwhile, GBP/USD has been flirting with a potential firmer break above 1.2000 but buyers have been lacking some conviction in taking out short-term resistance levels in the past week. That said, they have been firm on keeping above the 200-hour moving average (blue line) and that will be a notable level to watch in case the dollar does make a move post-Fed:
Elsewhere, USD/JPY is keeping little changed around 136.80 but is still holding within a broader range of 135.00 to 140.00 for the time being. With bond yields looking heavier in recent sessions, it is tough for the pair to take flight again so we will have to see if the Fed can provide any sparks.
Looking at commodity currencies, USD/CAD is holding on at a notable short-term support level at around 1.2815-20 upon the retreat from 1.3200 two weeks back:
Further support is then seen closer to the 100-day moving average (red line) at 1.2773 currently, should the dollar falter upon the Fed reaction. Otherwise, a vice versa reaction has the technical makings of a double bottom around the support level highlighted.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD is little changed on the day even as equities are showing more appetite following yesterday’s retreat. The pair is seen at 0.6945 and the recent bounce appears to have stalled at the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 0.6982 – which will be a key level to watch as well for any post-Fed reaction before getting to 0.7000:
In case the dollar does strengthen, a push back below 0.6900 is likely to draw back in the mid-July lows as a potential target.