That’s quite the drop in yields this week, with the peak in 10-year yields having hit 3.20% on Monday. We’re now 35 bps down from there to 2.85% as the bid in bonds continue to stay the course this week.
There are plenty of moving parts when it comes to bond market flows at the moment and there aren’t any easy answers.
The selloff in equities is one that could lend some safety flows but amid deleveraging pressures in recent weeks, that hasn’t so much so been a real factor driving bond market sentiment. But it is one that may be partly in play for now.
Besides that, the stronger argument perhaps is that we have reached ‘peak hawkishness’ when it comes to the Fed – at least for now. The market knows very well to expect at least two more 50 bps rate hikes and a push towards 3% Fed funds rate.
That might be a good enough signal for bond traders to take their foot off the gas pedal.
But in the bigger picture, with inflation pressures likely to be more persistent in keeping at a higher level, one can expect yields to also keep more elevated amid expectations that central banks will keep with tighter policy to try and rein that in.