The AUDUSD bounced higher last week (see daily chart above) taking the price up to retest the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above) currently at 0.72557.
The high price reached 0.7264 on Wednesday and 0.7265 on Thursday (just above that MA) before starting its run back to the downside. The price in the AUDUSD yesterday, fell below the swing low from December 2021 at 0.6990, and the January 2022 swing low at 0.6966. The price closed the day at 0.6946.
Today after making a new low at 0.69099 in the Asian session, the price rebounded back above the January 2022 low at 0.6986 as risk on sentiment improved. However, the high price today stalled ahead of the 2021 low price at 0.69901. The corrective high today reached 0.6986 before rotating back to the downside.
That rotation has now seen increased selling over the last few hours as London/European traders look to exit, and stocks in the US give up their earlier gains. The price is currently trading at 0.6927 and looks toward the low for the day at 0.69099.
The old 2022 low at 0.6966 is now resistance once again. Closer resistance would be the close from yesterday at 0.6946.
I would expect a move back above those levels for the 2nd time today would help the corrective tone a bit on the 2nd failed break. Absent that, and sellers have more control and a push toward even lower levels would be the path of least resistance.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the price action is down up and back down again today. The yellow area in the chart represents the lows from December 2021 and January 2022 between 0.6966 to 0.6990. The buyers tried to push the price through those levels only to fall short of the higher target. That area remains key resistance. Getting above would be the minimal corrective targets with 0.70293 low from May 2 and the 38.2% of the move down from last week’s high at 0.70458 as other upside targets.
For now, however, the price is down 4 straight days. The price decline has taken the price down 360 or so pips. The corrections have been modest and stayed below upside targets. All that points in the favor of the sellers for the AUDUSD.