The USDCAD has seen down and up price action today in a narrow trading range (around 49 pips). The high price reached during the last hourly bar, extended up into a swing area between 1.28467 to 1.2857. The price extended to 1.28526. The current price has moved back down to 1.2826 and in the process is also moved back below the 100 hour MA at 1.28325 (blue line in the chart above).
The low price today reached 1.2803. That was a above the rising 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above). The current 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.28007. The price of the USDCAD is not traded below its 200 hour moving average since April 22. Moving below that moving average would tilt the bias more in the direction of the sellers (if the price can stay below the level).
Other downside targets would have traders looking toward 1.2776 (swing high from April 25 then swing low from April 27). Below that and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 21 low comes in at 1.27391. The low from last Friday reached 1.2718 another target followed by the 100 day moving average and 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 21 low near 1.2680 area.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the price high on Monday extended above the March high at 1.2900. The high price reached 1.2913, but could not sustain momentum and closed back below that old high.
Going forward, a move above the 1.2900 level on the daily chart (and then the high extreme at 1.2913) would have traders looking toward the swing highs from August 2021 and December 2021 between 1.2948 and 1.2963. Those were the highest levels going back to the beginning of December 2020. Getting outside of that ceiling would increase the bullish bias from a longer term perspective.