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EURUSD moved higher overnight as the market took more of a breathe after the de-escalation on the Russian/Ukraine border yesterday. However, there has been more and more chatter about how the de-escalation is more in language versus reality. The US retail sales was better as well this morning which has helped to pressure the pair.
Technically, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA in the European session and pushed toward the higher 200 hour MA (green line) currently at 1.13965. The high price reached 1.13947. The 100 day MA at 1.1403 was also a topside resistance target that gave sellers something to lean against (i.e. sell with a stop above).
The price over the last 3 or so hours has seen a push back lower which has now taken the price back below the 100 Irving average at 1.13615 and below a swing area between 1.1359 and 1.13684. The 1.13684 is close risk now. The high price from yesterday stalled near that level. The low has now reached 1.13525.
On more weakness, the swing low from last Thursday comes in at 1.13295. That was also a swing high from February 2. A move below that level opens opens up the door for a move toward the 1.1300 level and then the 1.1279 swing low from Friday’s trade.
Conversely, a move back above 1.13684 with momentum, would have traders will once again focused on a rotation back toward the falling 200 hour moving average.