Price is closing lower on the week and gave up all the day gains
The USDCHF is not ending on a happy note for the buyers as the week’s trading moves toward the close.
The pair moved higher in the European morning session and in the process moved back above its 200 hour moving average for the first time since August 26, and then the 200 day moving average (after falling below it on Monday). Those levels came in at 0.9146 and 0.91529 respectively at the time and the move above was bullish. The high price reached 0.91744 which was just short of the high from last Friday at 0.91754.
The inability to move above that high was concerning. However, buyers remained in play as long as the price remained above the 200 day moving average and 200 hour moving averages.
That was not to be.
When the price moved back below the 200 hour moving average, buyers turned to sellers and the pair moved back to – and then through – the lower 100 hour moving average at 0.91247, on its way to new lows for the day at 0.91118. Now, sellers are trying to keep a lid on the pair against the 100 hour moving average (at 0.91247).
What can we expect next week?
The moving averages, starting with the
- 100 hour moving average at 0.91247,
- the 200 hour moving average at 0.91425 and
- the 200 day moving average at 0.91529 will be barometers for the buyers and sellers.
Stay below those moving averages and the sellers are more in control. The low from the week at 0.90811 would be a downside target. Move below and traders will look toward 0.9050 followed by 0.9030 which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 trading range.
Conversely, if the aforementioned moving averages start be broken, the bullish sentiment increases on each break.
Ultimately getting back above the 200 day moving average would tilt the bias more to the upside with traders then looking toward the 100 day moving average at 0.91888 as a another key target. If the buyers can get above that moving average, and the 38.2% of the move down from the September 30 high a few pips above that level at 0.91904, would open the door for further upside momentum in the pair.
Going into the weekend, however, it’s not a happy ending for the USDCHF dip buyers.