US Q3 advance GDP +2.0% vs +2.7% expected

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US Q3 advance GDP +2.0% vs +2.7% expected




















Highlights of the first look at Q3 GDP

  • Q2 was +6.7% annualized (unrevised)
  • Q1 was 6.4% annualized
  • Personal consumption +1.6% vs +12.0% in Q2
  • GDP deflator +5.7% vs +5.5% expected
  • Core PCE +4.5% vs +4.5% expected
  • GDP final sales -0.1% vs +8.1% in Q2
  • Full report
Details:

  • Inventories added 2.07 pp to GDP vs -1.26 pp in Q2
  • Inventories cut -2.62 pp in Q1
  • Exports  -2.5% vs +7.6% second reading
  • Imports +6.1% vs +7.1% second reading
  • Trade was a 1.14 pp drag vs 0.18 pp drag in Q2
  • Home investment -7.7% vs -11.7% in Q2
  • Consumer spending on durables -26.2% vs +11.6% in Q2
  • Personal consumption added 1.09 pp GDP vs +7.92 pp in Q2
  • Government spending added 0.14 pp to GDP vs +0.36 pp in Q2
  • Full report

Economist Julia Coronado notes that excluding motor vehicles, GDP grew at 7.4%. The demand is there for cars so this shows that it’s largely a chip-shortage phenomenon.

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