Dollar bid… a bit after retail sales
The EURUSD has moved back down toward the Asian session low at 1.1587. The low price just reached 1.1588 after the better than expected retail sales. The current price is trading at 1.1594.
Looking at the hourly chart, the low price still remains above the swing area between 1.1583 1.1586 (see red numbered circles). That area was a ceiling most recently on October 8 and October 11 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). On Thursday, the price moved above that ceiling and held support against it.
Today in the Asian session, the price could not move below that level leading to a rise back toward the highs from yesterday. However the price stalled ahead of that swing high near 1.1624 (the high price today reached 1.16182). The subsequent move back to the downside has taken the price back down toward that key swing area (old ceiling/new floor). A move below that level would have traders targeting the 100/200 hour moving averages near the 1.1572 area. A break back below those levels would increase the bearish bias.
Overall, the price rise off the low on Tuesday (lowest level since July 2020), has been relatively modest in relation to the trend move lower (see daily chart below).
Yes… the price moved back above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages on the hourly chart which is more bullish, and led to the move higher. However the price remains below the October high at 1.1640. It also is well below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high at 1.16705 (see hourly chart above).
Furthermore, the price highs this week did get back above the swing levels from September and November 2020 between 1.1601 and 1.1611 (see daily chart below).
However momentum could not be sustained, and the price is back below those swing levels from 2020. That is NOT all that bullish.
It would now take a move back above the 1.1601 to 1.1611 area today to give the buyers some hope. Absent that, and the sellers may look to make a run back toward the 100/200 hour MAs.
Watching 1.1601 to 1.1611.