The dollar is marginally higher on the day but the changes are relatively light overall. The euro is down slightly as Trump threatens tariffs but on the week itself, the single currency is holding up rather nicely. A case of Trump’s bark being more scary than his bite at the moment?
That is one way to look at it and perhaps what traders are leaning towards for now. And that’s also reflected in the bond market since last week. 10-year Treasury yields are well off the highs of 4.80% and are now down to 4.58%, though keeping fairly steadier so far today.
Looking to the session ahead, it may end up being a quieter one with nothing on the agenda from Europe. We’ll have some ECB speakers lined up but that’s about it. Besides that, there’s just the weekly US MBA mortgage applications at 1200 GMT.
But essentially, we’re slowly gravitating towards focusing on the BOJ policy decision next. That is arguably the most crucial key risk event remaining for this week. A rate hike beckons for Ueda & co. with traders pricing in ~88% odds of a 25 bps move currently.