USD/JPY daily chart
We’re seeing price nudge back up just above 150.00 for now but it comes after a more sluggish showing yesterday to start the new week/month. That despite the dollar seeing broader gains against the rest of the major currencies. The recent bid in bonds is still continuing to keep some downside pressure on the pair. However, the slight bounce today arguably owes in part to buyers stepping in upon a test of the 100-day moving average (red line) yesterday.
The technical level is currently seen at 148.94 and that is the key line in the sand in play. For sellers, they need to break that to keep with the downside momentum. For buyers, holding that will provide more confidence of a potential floor before reading the next clues.
For trading this week, US labour market data will be the key thing to watch out for. And they don’t come any bigger than the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. As such, USD/JPY might have to wait until then to really get a feel of whether to stick with the rebound or break down further.
In the meantime, broader dollar sentiment and the bond market will be the two drivers as we start December trading. That especially with a keen focus towards the upcoming FOMC meeting.
As for the yen side of the equation, the question remains whether or not the BOJ will hike rates later this month.
For now, policymakers are not providing any confirmation on that and that’s keeping markets guessing as well. The rates market is pricing in ~56% odds of a 25 bps rate hike currently.