Fundamental
Overview
The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations
leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar.
The bullish momentum picked
up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could
be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on
rate cuts in 2025.
The market is viewing all
of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to
spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the
Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
NZDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is testing a key support zone around the 0.5850 level. This is where
the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below the level to position
for a rally back into the 0.6050 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.5773 level next.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
NZDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline
defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean
on the trendline to position for more downside, while the buyers will look for
a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
NZDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum
on this timeframe. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on
it to position for the break below the 0.5850 level, while the buyers will look
for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next major trendline. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.