Fundamental
Overview
Gold is trading lower today
as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and
they just need the House now to get a red sweep.
That is the most bearish
scenario for gold in the short-term as it would make the tax cuts easier to
pass which should lead to higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. As of
now, the probabilities are in favour of the Republicans.
Given the above and the
strong US data we keep on getting, the Fed might start to change its stance,
and we could see a much earlier than expected pause in 2025.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold bounced near the major trendline as the buyers stepped in to
position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for the break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price bounced from the lower bound of the average daily range for today. We can also see that we
have a pretty strong resistance zone around the 2730 level now.
The sellers will likely
pile in around the resistance and the trendline to keep pushing
into new lows, while the buyers will look for a breakout to the upside to
invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time
high.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday,
we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.