- Final Sept reading was 55.2
- Manufacturing 47.8 vs 47.5 expected
- Prior manufacturing was 47.3 prior
- Composite 54.3 vs 54.0 prior
These numbers are a touch hot, highlighting once again that the US economy is fine.
Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business
Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“October saw business activity continue to grow at an
encouragingly solid pace, sustaining the economic upturn
that has been recorded in the year to date into the fourth
quarter. The October flash PMI is consistent with GDP
growing at an annualized rate of around 2.5%.
“Demand has also strengthened, as signalled by new
order inflows hitting the highest for nearly one-and-a-half
years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited to
the services economy.
“Sales are being stimulated in part by more competitive
pricing, which has in turn helped drive selling price inflation
for goods and services down to the lowest since the initial
pandemic slump in early 2020. These weaker price
pressures are consistent with inflation running below the Fed’s 2% target.
“Businesses nevertheless remain cautious about hiring,
leading to a third month of modest payroll reductions.
Firms are worried in particular about uncertainty caused by
the Presidential Election.
“More encouragingly, confidence in the longer, year-
ahead, outlook has improved as companies hope that a
stabler post-election environment is more conducive to
growth. This is especially so in the manufacturing sector,
where factories hope that the current soft patch in
production and sales will reverse as the uncertainty
caused by the political environment passes.”
This is a dream scenario with new orders jumping and inflation running below 2% with confidence picking up.