Fundamental
Overview
The S&P 500 has been
consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the
pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay.
We are now near the US
elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory
will likely give the stock market a boost on better growth expectations, while a
Harris triumph could be more bearish.
Treasury yields and the
stock market often move in the same direction as long as the move is led by
growth expectations. So the data, the elections result and the Fed’s reaction function will be key for the market in the next six months.
S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
S&P 500 Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 is consolidating around the all-time. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to start targeting new
lows.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 5920 resistance
and the 5865 support. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
extend the rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower
to target a deeper pullback into the trendline.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here. It’s unlikely that we’ll get a breakout today given
the lack of catalysts. The red lines define the average daily range for today
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.