Fundamental
Overview
As many other markets, crude
oil bottomed out around last Monday as growth fears abated and started to
slowly gain ground following catalysts like the appointment of the new Hamas
leader and good US jobless claims.
Yesterday we got another
strong wave of buying as we got a Fox report saying that Iran could have
attacked Israel in less than 24 hours. Tonight we got another report saying that the attack wasn’t going
to happen today which led to a slight pullback.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Crude Oil Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil rallied all the way back to the key resistance
zone around the 80 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with
a defined risk above the zone to position for a drop back into the 72.50 low.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Crude Oil 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the first major downward trendline last Friday and increased the
bullish momentum as more buyers piled in. The price is now trading around the
key resistance zone and another major trendline. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above this strong zone to increase the bullish bets into new
highs, while the sellers will look for a drop back into the lows.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Crude Oil 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for a break above the resistance with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the US PPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.