The Canada CPI came in weaker than expectations. The US retail sales was stronger. That should have sent the USDCAD higher and it did but after moving briefly above 1.3700, the price has rotated back down toward the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3683. That level will be a close risk level for buyers now. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and some of the bullishness today, is neutralized.
Next week, the BOC meets and are expected to cut by -0.25%. The market is pricing in a 93% chance. Now, the cut may be all priced in, but the story is dynamic and constantly changing. As a result, watching the technicals will help tell the story.
What we know in the short term the 1.3683 is support. Over the medium term, that level along with other MAs below will also be in play including the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.3658 and the 100 day MA at 1.3644.
If those MAs are all broken, the bears are back in control.
Conversely, staying above, and the buyers have the edge.
Find out all the details in the above video.