The USDCAD has continued its move to the downside today on the back of lower rates and the weaker US data, Technically, the price moved below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday, and remained below those MAs in the early Asian session today, before moving lower on the data.
The price moved also below is 100 day moving average, but has been trading above and below that level over the last few 4-hour bars. That level comes in at 1.36312. The low price today did stall against the high of the lower swing area between 1.3600 and 1.36154.
Going forward, if the price is able to get below the 1.3600 level,the 200 day moving average at 1.3692, and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December 2023 low at 1.3590 (and stay below those levels), it would represent a break and likely lead to further downside momentum toward the 50% midpoint of the same trading range at 1.35114.
Conversely, failure to get below 1.3590 to 1.3600, and a rotation back toward the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart is more likely on the failure to take advantage of the run lower this week with a break outside the multi-week trading range.